28 June 2021

Episode 002: Using PreMortem Analysis to Make Better Decisions
Intuition, Imagination, and Experience


Welcome to another episode of The Thinking Leader podcast, brought to you by Red Team Thinking. This week, Bryce talks with Dr. Gary Klein, the creator of PreMortem Analysis, a powerful tool designed to help leaders understand the ways their plans could fail so that they can ensure that they don’t. In addition to talking about the origins of PreMortem and how it is used, they talk about how humans make decisions and how leaders can make better ones – particularly in these challenging times. Gary also discusses his latest innovation, a training tool he calls ShadowBox.

Dr. Gary A. Klein is a cognitive psychologist and one of the world’s leading experts on human decision making. He is the author of several books, including Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions and Seeing What Others Don’t: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights. Gary pioneered the naturalistic decision-making movement and is the president of ShadowBox Training.

“When I've studied these kinds of so-called ‘black swan’ events that nobody predicted, almost every time you can find people who ... were warning about it.” - Dr. Gary Klein

Top 10 Takeaways:


[1:21] What is naturalistic decision-making?

[14:38] When to trust your gut – and when not to.

[18:00] How to lead through the present pandemic.

[24:29] The limits of past experience.

[25:55] Gary’s ShadowBox Method for seeing the world as experts see it..

[28:28] The origins of PreMortem Analysis.

[29:51] How to conduct a PreMortem.

[36:22] PreMortem and COVID-19

[37:35] Do “black swan events” actually exist?

[41:01] Using PreMortems to create truth-telling cultures.

[41:48] Gary gives his advice to leaders and decision-makers about how to make better decisions.


Mentioned in this Episode:


Brought to you by Red Team Thinking

Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions 

Seeing What Others Don’t: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights

ShadowBox Training

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Episode 2

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Episode 3

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